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January 2016 The Berkman Center in the News
The Decade in Blockchain — 2010 to 2020 in Review
February — The first ever cryptocurrency exchange, Bitcoin Market, is established. The first trade takes place a month later. April — The first public bitcoin trade takes place: 1000BTC traded for $30 at an exchange rate of 0.03USD/1BTC May — The first real-world bitcoin transaction is undertaken by Laszlo Hanyecz, who paid 10000BTC for two Papa John’s pizzas (Approximately $25 USD) June — Bitcoin developer Gavin Andreson creates a faucet offering 5 free BTC to the public July — First notable usage of the word “blockchain” appears on BitcoinTalk forum. Prior to this, it was referred to as ‘Proof-of-Work chain’ July — Bitcoin exchange named Magic The Gathering Online eXchange—also known as Mt. Gox—established August —Bitcoin protocol bug leads to emergency hard fork December — Satoshi Nakamoto ceases communication with the world
January — One-quarter of the eventual total of 21M bitcoins have been generated February — Bitcoin reaches parity for the first time with USD April — Bitcoin reaches parity with EUR and GBP June — WikiLeaks begins accepting Bitcoin donations June — Mt. Gox hacked, resulting in suspension of trading and a precipitous price drop for Bitcoin August — First Bitcoin Improvement Proposal: BIP Purpose and Guidelines October — Litecoin released December — Bitcoin featured as a major plot element in an episode of ‘The Good Wife’ as 9.45 million viewers watch.
May — Bitcoin Magazine, founded by Mihai Alisie and Vitalik Buterin, publishes first issue July — Government of Estonia begins incorporating blockchain into digital ID efforts September — Bitcoin Foundation created October — BitPay reports having over 1,000 merchants accepting bitcoin under its payment processing service November — First Bitcoin halving to 25 BTC per block
February — Reddit begins accepting bitcoins for Gold memberships March — Cyprus government bailout levies bank accounts with over $100k. Flight to Bitcoin results in major price spike. May —Total Bitcoin value surpasses 1 billion USD with 11M Bitcoin in circulation May — The first cryptocurrency market rally and crash takes place. Prices rise from $13 to $220, and then drop to $70 June — First major cryptocurrency theft. 25,000 BTC is stolen from Bitcoin forum founder July — Mastercoin becomes the first project to conduct an ICO August — U.S. Federal Court issues opinion that Bitcoin is a currency or form of money October — The FBI shuts down dark web marketplace Silk Road, confiscating approximately 26,000 bitcoins November — Vitalik Buterin releases the Ethereum White Paper: “A Next-Generation Smart Contract and Decentralized Application Platform” December — The first commit to the Ethereum codebase takes place
January — Vitalik Buterin announces Ethereum at the North American Bitcoin Conference in Miami February — HMRC in the UK classifies Bitcoin as private money March — Newsweek claims Dorian Nakamoto is Bitcoin creator. He is not April — Gavin Wood releases the Ethereum Yellow Paper: “Ethereum: A Secure Decentralised Generalised Transaction Ledger” June — Ethereum Foundation established in Zug, Switzerland June — US Marshals Service auctions off 30,000 Bitcoin confiscated from Silk Road. All are purchased by venture capitalist Tim Draper July — Ethereum token launch raises 31,591 BTC ($18,439,086) over 42 days September — TeraExchange launches first U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved Bitcoin over-the-counter swap October — ConsenSys is founded by Joe Lubin December — By year’s end, Paypal, Zynga, u/, Expedia, Newegg, Dell, Dish Network, and Microsoft are all accepting Bitcoin for payments
January — Coinbase opens up the first U.S-based cryptocurrency exchange February — Stripe initiates bitcoin payment integration for merchants April — NASDAQ initiates blockchain trial June — NYDFS releases final version of its BitLicense virtual currency regulations July — Ethereum’s first live mainnet release—Frontier—launched. August — Augur, the first token launch on the Ethereum network takes place September — R3 consortium formed with nine financial institutions, increases to over 40 members within six months October — Gemini exchange launches, founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss November — Announcement of first zero knowledge proof, ZK-Snarks December — Linux Foundation establishes Hyperledger project
January — Zcash announced February — HyperLedger project announced by Linux Foundation with thirty founding members March — Second Ethereum mainnet release, Homestead, is rolled out. April — The DAO (decentralized autonomous organization) launches a 28-day crowdsale. After one month, it raises an Ether value of more than US$150M May — Chinese Financial Blockchain Shenzhen Consortium launches with 31 members June — The DAO is attacked with 3.6M of the 11.5M Ether in The DAO redirected to the attacker’s Ethereum account July — The DAO attack results in a hard fork of the Ethereum Blockchain to recover funds. A minority group rejecting the hard fork continues to use the original blockchain renamed Ethereum Classic July — Second Bitcoin halving to 12.5BTC per block mined November — CME Launches Bitcoin Price Index
January — Bitcoin price breaks US$1,000 for the first time in three years February — Enterprise Ethereum Alliance formed with 30 founding members, over 150 members six months later March — Multiple applications for Bitcoin ETFs rejected by the SEC April — Bitcoin is officially recognized as currency by Japan June — EOS begins its year-long ICO, eventually raising $4 billion July — Parity hack exposes weaknesses in multisig wallets August — Bitcoin Cash forks from the Bitcoin Network October — Ethereum releases Byzantium soft fork network upgrade, part one of Metropolis September — China bans ICOs October — Bitcoin price surpasses $5,000 USD for the first time November — Bitcoin price surpasses $10,000 USD for the first time December — Ethereum Dapp Cryptokitties goes viral, pushing the Ethereum network to its limits
January — Ethereum price peaks near $1400 USD March — Google bans all ads pertaining to cryptocurrency March — Twitter bans all ads pertaining to cryptocurrency April — 2018 outpaces 2017 with $6.3 billion raised in token launches in the first four months of the year April — EU government commits $300 million to developing blockchain projects June — The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission states that Ether is not a security. July — Over 100,000 ERC20 tokens created August — New York Stock Exchange owner announces Bakkt, a federally regulated digital asset exchange October — Bitcoin’s 10th birthday November — VC investment in blockchain tech surpasses $1 billion December — 90% of banks in the US and Europe report exploration of blockchain tech
January — Coinstar machines begin selling cryptocurrency at grocery stores across the US February — Ethereum’s Constantinople hard fork is released, part two of Metropolis April — Bitcoin surpasses 400 million total transactions June — Facebook announces Libra July — United States senate holds hearings titled ‘Examining Regulatory Frameworks for Digital Currencies and Blockchain” August — Ethereum developer dominance reaches 4x that of any other blockchain October — Over 80 million distinct Ethereum addresses have been created September — Santander bank settles both sides of a $20 million bond on Ethereum November — Over 3000 Dapps created. Of them, 2700 are built on Ethereum
The Occult, Numerology & A Lot Pointing at an Event on August 10/11th
Take some of this with a grain of salt. But, as you know through my Shemitah analysis and digging into the occult signs, symbols, dates and numerology used by many of the satanic cabal that currently rule over this Earth that I do pay attention to these things. I also have one particular TDV subscriber in the Czech Republic who parses through a lot of this data for me… and what we have been uncovering about some sort of event on August 10th/11th is at least worth mentioning here. If something of interest does happen on this date then at least I can say I tried to tell you. And, if nothing happens, much of this information is interesting nonetheless. TISHA B’AV Tisha B’Av, the 9th day of the month of Av, which is the 11th month in the Jewish calendar (in Europe they would write this date as 9.11., this year 2019 in Gregorian calendar TISHA B´AV falls to August 10-11), is the saddest day in the Jewish calendar, on which the orthodox jews fast, deprive themselves and pray. It is the culmination of the Three Weeks (of mourning), a period of time during which we mark the destruction of the two Holy Temples in Jerusalem, the Solomon’s temple by the Neo-Babylian empire in 587 BC and Herod's temple by the Roman empire in 70 AD. It is crucial to note that this world is run by secret societies and at the very hard core of the secret societies is the Kabbalah. Kabbalah is the ancient jewish mysticism. It is a method of encoding information through a system of mathematics and numbers. It is some of the most ancient knowledge that man has ever possessed and has been kept secret and given only to those who proved themselves worthy through the process of initiation. Nobody today really knows where it comes from, it was here a long time before the jews came along, the jews just took it and preserved it. It truly is the hardcore of the secret knowledge, the metaphysics, the science that not even 0.1% of the today´s world population know anything about, Shortly to the symbol 911 and what it means in Kabbalah; Tisha B'Av is actually the Ninth of AV, the 9th day of the 11th month in the jewish calendar. In Kabbalah number 10 is the symbol of God's perfection and superiority. The satanists (what the people at the highest ranks of the secret societies like freemasons are) are literally very afraid of God, so they do everything to escape God’s supervision over their deeds , try to hide from Him and that is why they have this symbol 9 11 as the most satanic one, since they believe this symbol kind of “jumps over” or “skips” God, since God’s symbol of perfection and superiority in Kabbalah is the number 10. They jump over the number 10 or try to skip it, that is why 9 11… the Tisha B´Av holiday of the jewish calendar falls into the second half of July or first half of August in the Gregorian calendar. Some of the events that took place on Tisha B´Av in history: ● The First Crusade officially commenced on August 15, 1096 (Av 24, AM 4856), killing 10,000 Jews in its first month and destroying Jewish communities in France and the Rhineland. ● The Jews were expelled from England on July 18, 1290 (Av 9, AM 5050). ● The Jews were expelled from France on July 22, 1306 (Av 10, AM 5066). ● The Jews were expelled from Spain on July 31, 1492 (Av 7, AM 5252). ● Germany entered World War I on August 1–2, 1914 (Av 9–10, AM 5674), which caused massive upheaval in European Jewry and whose aftermath led to the Holocaust. ● On August 2, 1941 (Av 9, AM 5701), SS commander Heinrich Himmler formally received approval from the Nazi Party for "The Final Solution." As a result, the Holocaust began during which almost one third of the world's Jewish population perished. ● On July 23, 1942 (Av 9, AM 5702), began the mass deportation of Jews from the Warsaw Ghetto, en route to Treblinka. ● The AMIA bombing, of the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, killed 85 and injuring 300 on July 18, 1994 (10 Av, AM 5754). ● The Israeli disengagement from Gaza began in the Gaza Strip, expelling 8000 Jews who lived in Gush Katif; August 15, 2005; 10 Av, 5765. ● Last year 2018 on Tisha B´Av on July 21st, we had a shooting in Chicago. It happened at 10:30am when the arms of the clock point at 11 and 6, the upside down 911. Tisha B´Av this year is the numerical value of the number 58, 11+8+20+19, 58 is very symbolic number for freemasonry and other occult or secret societies. Donald Trump is also connected to this number, we will devote some attention to this number with relation to Donald Trump later below, furthermore the word TRUMP equals 222 in „reverse satanic“ style of gematria. August 10th is the 222nd day of the year. Moreover, some numerologists are saying that the most satanic day in the year from the number point of view is June 6th, like 6/6. For example, last year the merger of the two giants, Monsanto and Bayer , deal for $66 billion USD, was allegedly signed on 6/6/18 (18=6+6+6). Now if you add 66 days to 6/6 (June 6th), you’́ll come to August 11th, TISHA B´AV of 2019. This year we had a ritual on 6/6, with all the world’s (mis)leaders in Normandy, France, the 75th anniversary of the Normandy landing of the allies in 1944. On CNN they put some headlines in quotes, like “NORMANDY ANNIVERSARY” which equals 222 in ALW Kabbalah style of gematria (the beginning of Tisha B´Av this year is in the evening of august 10th, the 222nd day of the year). They also posted, “NORMANDY D-DAY” which equals 118 in both ALW and KFW Kabbalah styles of gematria. Maybe they are pointing to august 11th as much as they can, since 11.8. is the way August 11th is written in Europe. AUGUST 11TH The date 11.8. is also like 11+8 = 19, we are in the year 19, 19 matches CHAOS is gematria, in reverse it is 91, matching PHOENIX. It is also like 11x8=88, which is the symbolic number of Trump, in other words the “super time number.” The number 11 in Kabbalah is representing duality, shattering and the initiation into the mysteries of religion. September 11th was permeated by the number 11 like no other event in known history. 11 is also represented by the twin pillar of Jachin and Boaz, which stood at the entrance of Solomon’s temple. Number 11 and its multiples are the master numbers in numerology, they do not get reduced unlike the other numbers, which can be reduced. The number 8 is the number of time, represented by the hour glass, the infinity symbol and the Ouroboros biting its own tail. Number 8 is also the symbol of the Magician tarot card, the Magician is always depicted with the number 8 above his head and with the hourglass on the table in front of him. 1+1+8+2+0+1+9=22 22 is the “master builder number”, freemasons consider themselves to be THE MASTER BUILDERS. Also, there is 22 books of revelation, this date august 11th seems to be very much entangled with eschatology or the end times. Haarp’s patent day is August 11th 1987. It will be exactly 32 years on august 11th 2019. The 32nd degree is the highest degree of initiation of the Scottish rite of freemasonry, the most used rite among the Jewish freemasons. It has 33 degrees, but the 33rd degree is the so called “honorary degree”, the masons in the 33rd degree are bestowed this kind of degree as a credit for what they have done for freemasonry in their life or even after they die. No higher initiation into any more “sacred knowledge”, the highest degree of initiation is the 32nd degree. The formation of AL-QAEDA was on 11.8.88 (1988). This year on August 11th 2019 it will be exactly 31 years. 31 is the 11th prime number and also 13 in reverse, 13 is the biblical number of rebellion. AL-QAEDA matches 58 in gematria (words matching this number will be named later on) and also 888 in gematria, matching DONALD J TRUMP, EMMANUEL MACRON, JESUS CROSS, DEUTSCHE BANK Also, 11.8, 1919 the new German constitution was adopted, founding the Weimar Republic. This act lead Germany shortly after the first world war and a downwards spiral of hyperinflation, consequently into a nazi overtake, and ultimately into the second world war. DONALD TRUMP With the connection of building the third temple in Jerusalem at this time, the third year of the reign of Donald Trump as the new “King Cyrus” (the third year of the reign of King Cyrus is being described in the bible), and along the fact this year being very, very important for the satanic rulers on its own, this year TISHA B´AV on August 10th-11th 2019 seems to be a quite probable date for some kind of event of 911 importance. The state of Israel just celebrated its 71st anniversary on May 14th this year. 88 days later we´ll come to August 10th, the beginning of TISHA B´AV. 88 is the symbolic number of Trump (the re-incarnated King Cyrus): ● Trump spent 88 million USD of his own money for his campaign ● Trump had 88 offices across the US during his presidential campaign ● Trump had 88 events or campaign stops during his campaign ● Trump had the number 88 on his podium everywhere he spoke during his campaign ● Trump had 88 military advisors, retired admirals and generals who supported him in his campaign ● Trump’s slogan “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN” equals 808 in numerology. For those who missed Christine Lagarde’s lecture on numerology, zeros are ignored in numerology ● Trump’s slogan “STRONGER TOGETHER” equals 88 in two gematria styles ● Trump’s cousin Thomas P. Trump , due to which Donald Trump was being mocked during his campaign, died exactly 1 year before Trump's inauguration day, 20. January 2016, 88 days before he would be 88. ● The movie Donnie Darko, predicting Trump's victory, where the main character kind of symbolizes Donald Trump, and the movie talks about time travel and the year 1988, is overloaded with the symbology of the number 88 ● The word “Trump” matches 88 in gematria in the „english ordinal“ style, the most basic numerology style, where A = 1 and Z = 26, DONALD J TRUMP equals 888 in english-sumarian style of gematria ● Trump’s mother, Mary Anne MacLeod, died when she was 88 years and 88 days old Donald Trump, in esoteric circles, is always compared to King Cyrus, or Cyrus the Great, the king of Persia, who released the Jews from the 70 years of captivity in Babylon, gave them back the city of Jerusalem and built a wall around it. Netanyhu even compares Trump to Cyrus. When Trump was selected the US president, the state of Israel started minting coins with the king Cyrus and President Trump together on one coin. If we just for a while accept the notion that Trump is the reincarnation of the King Cyrus, (now taking into account the fact they truly look alike…), we should also look at some potential other connections and similarities between these two leaders and maybe try to make some predictions of what might be happening in the near future… Now let’s look at the bible, New King James Version, Daniel 10: Daniel 10 New International Version (NIV) Daniel’s Vision of a Man 10 In the third year of Cyrus king of Persia, a revelation was given to Daniel (who was called Belteshazzar). Its message was true and it concerned a great war.[a] The understanding of the message came to him in a vision. 2 At that time I, Daniel, mourned for three weeks. 3 I ate no choice food; no meat or wine touched my lips; and I used no lotions at all until the three weeks were over. So now we are in the third year of Donald Trump (reincarnated Cyrus the Great???) presidency, who is compared to King Cyrus in many esoteric and historic aspects, and we are nearing the “three weeks of mourning.” The three weeks of mourning are between the 17th of Tammuz (when the walls were broken down, the breach was made, when they were coming over to take over the temple and siege Jerusalem) and Tisha B´Av (the destruction of the two temples, Solomon’s temple and Herod's temple), meaning this year, 2019, between July 21st and August 11th in the Gregorian calendar. August Eleventh is like 11.8.2019, or 11+8+20+19=58. 58 is the number very much connected to the freemasonry other occult or secret societies. Let's look at some words matching the number 58 in numerology: JERUSALEM, THIRD TEMPLE, SOLOMON’S TEMPLE (the 1st temple that got destroyed on Tisha B´Av), HEROD'S TEMPLE (the 2nd temple that was destroyed on Tisha B´Av), RED HEIFER, FREEMASONRY, ROSICRUCIAN, SECRET SOCIETY, SCOTTISH RITES, DOLLAR It is important to note that Donald Trump won the 58th presidential election in the USA, his inauguration date was 20.1.2017, 20+1+20+17=58, Trump Tower has 58 floors. Trump announced he would be running for candidacy from the 58th story of the Trump Tower. August 11th is 58 days after Donald Trump’s birthday (June 14th). Donald Trump was in Israel at the exact place where they plan to build the third temple, on May 22nd 2017 (another very ritualistic day for the freemasons), exactly 811 days before 8/11, or august 11th 2019. PREDICTIVE PROGRAMMING THE SIMPSONS: The episode “APOCALYPSE COW,” quite clearly symbolizing the RED HEIFER, (154 in gematria, matching TEMPLE MOUNT, RITUAL SACRIFICE). RED HEIFER, which birth was announced by the Temple institute in Israel on September 4th 2018, a day that leaves 118 days till the end of the year, later was celebrated in Israel on 9/11/2018. The date the Red Heifer was actually born is reportedly on August 28th 2018. August 28th 2018 is like 28.8./2018, or 2+8+8=18, 1+8=9, then the year 2018 is like 2+0+1+8=11, so hidden 9/11 in the date of the Red Heifer’s birth. The birth of the red heifer is a biblical sign of building the third temple, the third temple should be built at the time when the MESSIAH comes back to planet earth, the messiah is said to come back “through the Golden Gate”. The Simpsons’ “APOCALYPSE COW” is the episode 17, Season 19 (season 19, do they point to the year 19??? btw. „AUGUST 11“ is 19 in gematria matching CHAOS, and also equals 91 matching PHOENIX), episode 17 (1+7=8, do they point to the 8th month of the “season” or year 19?). “Apocalypse Cow” came out on April 27, 2008. 2008 was a leap year, so April 27th was the 118. (11.8.) day of the year. Again, it is 11 years ago when this cartoon was put out… THE GRIM REAPER There is a video of Grim Reaper standing in the dress of Satan next to the San Francisco Golden Gate bridge, nicely done predictive programming, this video came out July 24th 2018, exactly 1 year and 18 days before August 11th 2019. 1 year 18 days. We are dealing again with the predictive programming of 118… PACIFIC RIM In this movie, which is all about a tragic events and the main one is the destruction of the GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE IN SANFRANCISCO, it shows on the scene when the bridge is being destroyed the date August 11 2013, at 9:32am (923 and its variations are the new satanic code for some kind of tragedy events). Maybe just a coincidence… SAN FRANCISCO GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE It is said that the “third temple” should be built at the time the Messiah comes back. Also, the story says that the Messiah will come back through the “Golden Gate”. The Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco kind of shares the name with the Golden Gate in Jerusalem. That is the eastern gate of the Temple Mount, where a divine presence used to appear and will appear again, when the Messiah comes, and a new gate replaces the present one. It is important to note that Donald Trump won the 58th presidential election in the US, but is actually the 45th president of the US, since some presidents made two terms. Let's look at some word or word connections having 45 in gematria: GOLDEN GATE, HOLY BIBLE, BRIDGE, MIKE PENCE, BITCOIN Now the current mayor of San Francisco is the 45th mayor of San Francisco, and she is turning 45 years old on August 11th 2019. Her name is London Breed. Lets look at the gematria of her name: LONDON BREED 54 (45 in reverse), 317 matching SATURN, MESIAH, BITCOIN, 216 (6X6X6), 33 The construction of the Golden Gate Bridge started on January 5th, 1933. 1/5/1933 is like 1+5+19+33=58 NUMEROLOGY It is important to note that numerology belongs to the esoteric science by which all the secret and occult societies are literally obsessed! Next to the geometry or mainly sacred geometry and architecture, math, astrotheology, it is fair to state that numerology is probably the most important one of all of the teachings in all of the mystic schools. It is not the right time now to explain why it is so, it is just important to note that it is a fact. The cabalists and high ranking members of secret societies are convinced that words with the same numeric values are having some kind of interconnection or kind of the same vibrational frequencies and therefore kind of a same meaning or purpose in this material world, or the matrix we are living in. The core of numerology is that these people believe that God created the world by merging the letters with the numbers and vice versa. So, let’s get technically into it and see some other correlations and predictive programming, since we know very well that the powers that should not be, according to the cosmic rule, HAVE TO ANNOUNCE THEIR PLANS IN ADVANCE, OTHERWISE IT WILL NOT COME TO FRUITION! If we are really talking about some event on a biblical scale, that could really be called 911 2.0, there really has to be something for those who have “eyes to see and ears to hear…” August 11th 2019 is like 11+8+20+19 = 58 Let’s look at some words matching the number 58 in numerology: JERUSALEM, THIRD TEMPLE, SOLOMON´S TEMPLE (the 1st temple that got destroyed on Tisha B´Av), HEROD’S TEMPLE (the 2nd temple that was destroyed on Tisha B´Av), RED HEIFER, FREEMASONRY, ROSICRUCIAN, SECRET SOCIETY, SCOTTISH RITES, DOLLAR, GREGORIAN, CALENDAR, ZODIAC, STARS This year the most significant freemasonic ritual was undoubtedly the burning of Notre Dame. Interestingly, the 15th of april, this ritualistic day, is exactly 118 days before August 11th, or before 11.8. Coincidently, april 15th, 15.4.2019 is like 15+4+20+19=58, the same value as August 11th 2019. There was also one other satanic ritual this year, the so called “Christchurch shooting.” It happened on the 15th of March 2019. The zip code for Christchurch is 8011 (8/11). Interestingly, 2 mosques were attacked by the shooting as well as two temples were destroyed on Tisha B´Av. Coincidently the word connection CHRISTCHURCH SHOOTING is 118 in „jewish reduction“ style of numerology. The Christchurch shooting happened on 15.3.2019 , it is like 15+3+20+19=57, the same as August 10th, or 10.8.2018, which is like 10+8+20+19=57, some other words matching 57 in numerology: JEWS, MOON. 11th of August is the 223rd day of the year. 223 is the symbolic number of SKULL AND BONES. There are some words and word connections matching 223 in gematria: THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN, MASONIC, GOLD AND SILVER STANDARD, GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE, NATURAL DISASTER, SAN FRANCISCO BRIDGE, LET HIM WHO THAT HATH UNDERSTANDING COUNT THE NUMBER OF THE BEAST. On May 14th, 2019, the state of Israel has celebrated the 71st birthday. Words like TEMPLE, TALMUD equals 71 in numerology. May 14th is the 134. day of the year. Some words matching 134 in numerology: TISHA B´AV, NINTH OF AV (the same as TISHA B´AV), NETANYAHU. From august 11th till the Netanyahu’s birthday on October 21st is exactly 71 days. The major satanic ritual of this century was undoubtedly 9/11, or September 11th, 2001. From that day till August 11th 2019 it is exactly 17 years and 11 months. In numerology, the master number 11 and its multiples do not get reduced, the other numbers can be reduced. 17 years and 11 days. 1+7/11 is like 8 and 11 to the day 8/11. The word DEATH equals 118 in “JEWISH” style of gematria. 222 CONCLUSION You may have read all that and just think I am crazy. But there are a lot of people who put a lot of work into decoding these things and it is very interesting information. So, will something major occur on August 10th or 11th? And, if so, what will it be? I’ll leave that up to you to ponder on but there is enough evidence pointing to those dates that I felt I should at least make you aware of it. Other dates that have similar programming include September 23rd and/or November 23rd. I’ll keep an eye on those dates as well but we are thinking those dates are more likely to be of importance in 2022 or 2023. This is all just information. Do with it what you wish. But, as I said, at the very least it is very interesting! Source:https://dollarvigilante.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/JULY-2019-Dispatch-PREMIUM.pdf
I interlaced everything between Vitalik and Tuur to make it easier to read.
1/ People often ask me why I’m so “against” Ethereum. Why do I go out of my way to point out flaws or make analogies that put it in a bad light?
2/ First, ETH’s architecture & culture is opposite that of Bitcoin, and yet claims to offer same solutions: decentralization, immutability, SoV, asset issuance, smart contracts, … Second, ETH is considered a crypto ‘blue chip’, thus colors perception of uninformed newcomers.
Agree! I personally find Ethereum culture far saner, though I am a bit biased :)
3/ I've followed Ethereum since 2014 & feel a responsibility to share my concerns. IMO contrary to its marketing, ETH is at best a science experiment. It’s now valued at $13B, which I think is still too high.
Not an argument
4/ I agree with Ethereum developer Vlad Zamfir that it’s not money, not safe, and not scalable. https://twitter.com/VladZamfistatus/838006311598030848 … @VladZamfir Eth isn't money, so there is no monetary policy. There is currently fixed block issuance with an exponential difficulty increase (the bomb).
I'm pretty sure Vlad would say the exact same thing about Bitcoin
5/ To me the first red flag came up when in our weekly hangout we asked the ETH founders about to how they were going to scale the network. (We’re now 4.5 years later, and sharding is still a pipe dream.)
The core principles have been known for years, the core design for nearly a year, and details for months, with implementations on the way. So sharding is definitely not at the pipe dream stage at this point.
6/ Despite strong optimism that on-chain scaling of Ethereum was around the corner (just another engineering job), this promise hasn’t been delivered on to date.
Sure, sharding is not yet finished. Though more incremental stuff has been going well, eg. uncle rates are at near record lows despite very high chain usage.
7/ Recently, a team of reputable developers decided to peer review a widely anticipated Casper / sharding white paper, concluding that it does not live up to its own claims.
Unmerciful peer review of Vlad Zamfir & co's white paper to scale Ethereum: "the authors do NOT prove that the CBC Casper family of protocols is Byzantine fault tolerant in either practice or theory".
8/ On the 2nd layer front, devs are now trying to scale Ethereum via scale via state channels (ETH’s version of Lightning), but it is unclear whether main-chain issued ERC20 type tokens will be portable to this environment.
Umm... you can definitely use Raiden with arbitrary ERC20s. That's why the interface currently uses WETH (the ERC20-fied version of ether) and not ETH
9/ Compare this to how the Bitcoin Lightning Network project evolved:
elizabeth stark @starkness: For lnd: First public code released: January 2016 Alpha: January 2017 Beta: March 2018…
10/ Bitcoin’s Lightning Network is now live, and is growing at rapid clip.
Jameson Lopp @lopp: Lightning Network: January 2018 vs December 2018
Sure, though as far as I understand there's still a low probability of finding routes for nontrivial amounts, and there's capital lockup griefing vectors, and privacy issues.... FWIW I personally never thought lightning is unworkable, it's just a design that inherently runs into ten thousand small issues that will likely take a very long time to get past.
11/ In 2017, more Ethereum scaling buzz was created, this time the panacea was “Plasma”.
12/ However, upon closer examination it was the recycling of some stale ideas, and the project went nowhere:
Peter Todd @peterktodd These ideas were all considered in the Treechains design process, and ultimately rejected as insecure.
Just because Peter Todd rejected something as "insecure" doesn't mean that it is. In general, the ethereum research community is quite convinced that the fundamental Plasma design is fine, and as far as I understand there are formal proofs on the way. The only insecurity that can't be avoided is mass exit vulns, and channel-based systems have those too.
13/ The elephant in the room is the transition to proof-of-stake, an “environmentally friendly” way to secure the chain. (If this was the plan all along, why create a proof-of-work chain first?)
@TuurDemeester "Changing from proof of work to proof of stake changes the economics of the system, all the rules change and it will impact everything."
Umm... we created a proof of work chain first because we did not have a satisfactory proof of stake algo initially?
14/ For the uninitiated, here’s a good write-up that highlights some of the fundamental design problems of proof-of-stake. Like I said, this is science experiment territory.
Yes, we know about weak subjectivity, see https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/11/25/proof-stake-learned-love-weak-subjectivity/. It's really not that bad, especially given that users need to update their clients once in a while anyway, oh and by the way even if the weak subjectivity assumption is broken an attacker still needs to gather up that pile of old keys making up 51% of the stake. And also to defend against that there's Universal Hash Time.
16/ Keep in mind that Proof of Stake (PoS) is not a new concept at all. Proof-of-Work actually was one of the big innovations that made Bitcoin possible, after PoS was deemed impractical because of censorship vulnerability.
Oh I definitely agree that proof of work was superior for bootstrap, and I liked it back then especially because it actually managed to be reasonably egalitarian around 2009-2012 before ASICs fully took over. But at the present time it doesn't really have that nice attribute.
17/ Over the years, this has become a pattern in Ethereum’s culture: recycling old ideas while not properly referring to past research and having poor peer review standards. This is not how science progresses.Tuur Demeester added,
I try to credit people whenever I can; half my blog and ethresear.ch posts have a "special thanks" section right at the top. Sometimes we end up re-inventing stuff, and sometimes we end up hearing about stuff, forgetting it, and later re-inventing it; that's life as an autodidact. And if you feel you've been unfairly not credited for something, always feel free to comment, people have done this and I've edited.
18/ One of my big concerns is that sophistry and marketing hype is a serious part of Ethereum’s success so far, and that overly inflated expectations have lead to an inflated market cap.
Ok, go on.
19/ Let’s illustrate with an example.
20/ A few days ago, I shared a critical tweet that made the argument that Ethereum’s value proposition is in essence utopian.
@TuurDemeester Ethereum-ism sounds a bit like Marxism to me:
What works today (PoW) is 'just a phase', the ideal & unproven future is to come: Proof-of-Stake.…
22/ My first point, about Ethereum developers rejecting Proof-of-Work, has been illustrated many times over By Vitalik and others. (See earlier in this tweetstorm for more about how PoS is unproven.)
Vitalik Non-giver of Ether @VitalikButerin: I don't believe in proof of work!
See above for links as to why I think proof of stake is great.
23/ My second point addresses Ethereum’s romance with the vague and dangerous notion of ‘social consensus’, where disruptive hard-forks are used to ‘upgrade’ or ‘optimize’ the system, which inevitably leads to increased centralization. More here:
See my rebuttal to Tuur's rebuttal :)
24/ My third point addresses PoS’ promise of perpetual income to ETHizens. Vitalik is no stranger to embracing free lunch ideas, e.g. during his 2014 ETH announcement speech, where he described a coin with a 20% inflation tax as having “no cost” to users.
Yeah, I haven't really emphasized perpetual income to stakers as a selling point in years. I actually favor rewards being as low as possible while still being high enough for security.
25/ In his response to my tweet, Vitalik adopted my format to “play the same game” in criticizing Bitcoin. My criticisms weren't addressed, and his response was riddled with errors. Yet his followers gave it +1,000 upvotes!
Vitalik Non-giver of Ether @VitalikButerin: - What works today (L1) is just a phase, ideal and unproven future (usable L2) is to come - Utopian concept of progress: we're already so confident we're finished we ain't needin no hard forks…
Ok, let's hear about what the errors are...
26/ Rebuttal: - BTC layer 1 is not “just a phase”, it always will be its definitive bedrock for transaction settlement. - Soft forking digital protocols has been the norm for over 3 decades—hard-forks are the deviation! - Satoshi never suggested hyperbitcoinization as a goal.
Sure, but (i) the use of layer 1 for consumer payments is definitely, in bitcoin ideology, "just a phase", (ii) I don't think you can make analogies between consensus protocols and other kinds of protocols, and between soft forking consensus protocols and protocol changes in other protocols, that easily, (iii) plenty of people do believe that hyperbitcoinization as a goal. Oh by the way: https://twitter.com/tuurdemeestestatus/545993119599460353
27/ This kind of sophistry is exhausting and completely counter-productive, but it can be very convincing for an uninformed retail public.
Ok, go on.
28/ Let me share a few more inconvenient truths.
29/ In order to “guarantee” the transition to PoS’ utopia of perpetual income (staking coins earns interest), a “difficulty bomb” was embedded in the protocol, which supposedly would force miners to accept the transition.
The intended goal of the difficulty bomb was to prevent the protocol from ossifying, by ensuring that it has to hard fork eventually to reset the difficulty bomb, at which point the status quo bias in favor of not changing other protocol rules at the same time would be weaker. Though forcing a switch to PoS was definitely a key goal.
30/ Of course, nothing came of this, because anything in the ETH protocol can be hard-forked away. Another broken promise.
33/ The modular approach to Bitcoin seems to be much better at compartmentalizing risk, and thus reducing attack surfaces. I’ve written about modular scaling here...
To be fair, risk is reduced because Bitcoin does less.
34/ Another huge issue that Ethereum has is with scaling. By putting “everything on the blockchain” (which stores everything forever) and dubbing it “the world computer”, you are going to end up with a very slow and clogged up system.
We never advocated "putting everything on the blockchain". The phrase "world computer" was never meant to be interpreted as "everyone's personal desktop", but rather as a common platform specifically for the parts of applications that require consensus on shared state. As evidence of this, notice how Whisper and Swarm were part of the vision as complements to Ethereum right from the start.
35/ By now the Ethereum bloat is so bad that cheaply running an individual node is practically impossible for a lay person. ETH developers are also imploring people to not deploy more smart contract apps on its blockchain.
Tuur Demeester @TuurDemeester: But... deploying d-apps on the "Ethereum Virtual Machine" is exactly what everyone was encouraged to do for the past 4 years. Looks like on-chain scaling wasn't such a great idea after all.
Umm.... I just spun up a node from scratch last week. On a consumer laptop.
36/ As a result, and despite the claims that running a node in “warp” mode is easy and as good as a full node, Ethereum is becoming increasingly centralized.
37/ Another hollow claim: in 2016, Ethereum was promoted as being censorship resistant…
Tuur Demeester @TuurDemeester: Pre TheDAO #Ethereum presentation: "uncensorable, code is law, bottom up". http://ow.ly/qW49302Pp92
Yes, the DAO fork did violate the notion of absolute immutability. However, the "forking the DAO will lead to doom and gloom" crowd was very wrong in one key way: it did NOT work as a precedent justifying all sorts of further state interventions. The community clearly drew a line in the sand by firmly rejecting EIP 867, and EIP 999 seems to now also be going nowhere. So it seems like there's some evidence that the social contract of "moderately but not infinitely strong immutability" actually can be stable.
38/ Yet later that year, after only 6% of ETH holders had cast a vote, ETH core devs decided to endorse a hard-fork that clawed back the funds from a smart contract that held 4.5% of all ETH in circulation. More here: ...
Hudson Jameson @hudsonjameson: The "semi-closed" Ethereum 1.x meeting from last Friday was an experiment. The All Core Dev meeting this Friday will be recorded as usual.
Suppose I were to tomorrow sign up to work directly for Kim Jong Un. What concretely would happen to the Ethereum protocol? I suspect very little; I am mostly involved in the Serenity work, and the other researchers have proven very capable of both pushing the spec forward even without me and catching any mistakes with my work. So I don't think any argument involving me applies. And we ended up deciding not to do more semi-closed meetings.
40/ Another red flag to me is the apparent lack of relevant expertise in the ETH development community. (Check the responses…)
I personally am confident in the talents of our core researchers, and our community of academic partners. Most recently the latter group includes people from Starkware, Stanford CBR, IC3, and other groups.
I have no idea who described Lucius Meredith's work as being important for the Serenity roadmap.... oh and by the way, RChain is NOT an "Ethereum scaling company"
42/ Perhaps the recently added Gandalf of Ethereum, with his “Fellowship of Ethereum Magicians” [sic] can save the day, but imo that seems unlikely...
Honestly, I don't see why Ethereum Gandalf needs to save the day, because I don't see what is in danger and needs to be saved...
43/ This is becoming a long tweetstorm, so let’s wrap up with a few closing comments.
44/ Do I have a conflict of interest? ETH is a publicly available asset with no real barriers to entry, so I could easily get a stake. Also, having met Vitalik & other ETH founders several times in 2013-’14, it would have been doable for me to become part of the in-crowd.
Agree there. And BTW I generally think financial conflicts of interest are somewhat overrated; social conflicts/tribal biases are the bigger problem much of the time. Though those two kinds of misalignments do frequently overlap and reinforce each other so they're difficult to fully disentangle.
45/ Actually, I was initially excited about Ethereum’s smart contract work - this was before one of its many pivots.
Tuur Demeester @TuurDemeester: Ethereum is probably the first programming language I will teach myself - who wouldn't want the ability to program smart BTC contracts?
Ethereum was never about "smart BTC contracts"..... even "Ethereum as a Mastercoin-style meta-protocol" was intended to be built on top of Primecoin.
46/ Also, I have done my share of soul searching about whether I could be suffering from survivor’s bias.
47/ Here’s why Ethereum is dubious to me: rather than creating an open source project & testnet to work on these interesting computer science problems, its founders instead did a securities offering, involving many thousands of clueless retail investors.
48/ Investing in the Ethereum ICO was akin to buying shares in a startup that had “invent time travel” as part of its business plan. Imo it was a reckless security offering, and it set the tone for the terrible capital misallocation of the 2017 ICO boom.
Nothing in the ethereum roadmap requires time-travel-like technical advancements or anything remotely close to that. Proof: we basically have all the fundamental technical advancements we need at this point.
49/ In my view, Ethereum is the Yahoo of our day - an unscalable “blue chip” cryptocurrency:
Tuur Demeester @TuurDemeester: 1/ The DotCom bubble shows that the market isn't very good at valuing early stage technology. I'll use Google vs. Yahoo to illustrate.
Paywall / Subscribers The Globe and Mail Rob Carrick Published January 26, 2018 For Subscribers Surging investor confidence in early 2018 is starting to look like reckless enthusiasm. Investors have lately shown a willingness to take on risk in search of home-run returns, and the investment industry is serving up products to capitalize. The stock markets are not the problem, particularly the Canadian market. Annualized returns over all periods – from the past 12 months to the past 20 years – are far from excessive and could even be called modest. The U.S. market has been a lot stronger in the past decade, but it's now supported by a growing economy. Remember, it's recessions that usually cause a bear market. Strong market fundamentals support aggressive investing, but there's a limit. Here are four examples of how these limits are being tested right now. Adviser shame Financial planner Rona Birenbaum has noticed a trend lately of people disparaging advisers on the basis of it being so easy to invest for yourself that paying someone to do it for you is pointless and a waste. "I'm starting to hear client comments like 'my brother thinks I'm an idiot for using an adviser,'" she said. "You're almost afraid to say you pay for financial advice." You can see this same thinking in a recent exchange on The Globe and Mail's Gen Y Money Facebook page. After someone asked for referrals to a financial adviser, other members of the community tried to convince him to invest on his own. Dismissing advisers sends a message that investing is easy, which is an attitude that develops when a bull market is in full swing. There are simple ways to invest on your own – the exchange-traded fund portfolio with just four funds I wrote about recently is one example. But the overall investing process involves a lot more than just buying four ETFs. You have to rebalance a portfolio when the mix of stocks and bonds gets out of sync, resist the temptation to sell at market lows and tamp down your greed in market highs. And then there's the question of whether the results you're getting are sufficient to achieve your financial goals. DIY investing is a righteous choice, but it's harder than it looks in today's investing climate. There's no shame in paying a reasonable price for help. The rise in margin debt Buying on margin means putting down some of your own money to buy stocks and covering the rest of the cost by borrowing from your broker. If the shares go up in price, you make more of a profit than if you just used your own money. Falling share prices would likewise magnify your losses. The total amount of debt in investment accounts set up for clients to buy on margin was up 8 per cent between the end of 2016 and Nov. 30, 2017. But this number undersells the extent to which investors are embracing margin. The Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada reports that margin debt soared to $25.6-billion at Nov. 30 from $15.9-billion in June, 2008, which is just before the last bear market began. Low interest rates explain a lot of this increase, just as they do the rise in mortgage debt and house prices. But rising margin borrowing also signals a growing acceptance of risk. In the Maclean's list of the 91 most important economic charts to watch this year, analyst Alexander MacDonald of Cowan Asset Management noted that margin debt no longer closely tracks the ups and downs of the S&P/TSX composite index. Since 2013, margin debt has grown steadily despite an up-and-down market. It's worth noting that in the latter half of 2008, the total amount of margin debt plunged 44 per cent. Margin debt is toxic in fast-falling markets. ETFs tied to current trends Marijuana stocks are driving the unprecedented trading volumes that have jammed up websites and phone lines at some online brokerage firms in early 2018. A few exchange-traded fund companies are capitalizing on this and other hot investing trends. The Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (HMMJ-TSX) has been a big hit for a fund not even a year old, with a one-month gain to midweek of 47 per cent and high trading volumes that one day this month reached a stunning 5.6 million shares. Horizons now plans an encore – the Horizons Junior Marijuana Growers Index ETF, which must still be approved by regulators. One other ETF provider has filed a preliminary prospectus for a marijuana ETF, while still other firms are readying niche products in cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and the blockchain technology on which these currencies are based. Preliminary prospectuses have been submitted for such miscellany as the Harvest Blockchain Technologies ETF, Purpose Investments' Bitcoin Trust and the Evolve Bitcoin ETF. National Bank Financial reports that 72 per cent of ETF flows in 2017 went into traditional index-tracking products, which is a positive trend because these funds tend to be cheapest to own. But the success of HMMJ highlights the strong potential for lucrative niche ETFs as well. The management expense ratio for this ETF is 0.89 per cent, compared with 0.06 per cent for a cheap Canadian equity ETF. The "must buy stocks" mindset The growing thirst for stocks can most clearly be seen in the unprecedented levels of trading done by individuals through online brokerage firms. Basically, investors have broken their brokers' websites by logging on in swarms to trade stocks and see how their accounts are performing. Brokers were unprepared for this onslaught, which is a fail on their part. But let's understand that the level of trading people are doing today is not normal. It's a speculative surge triggered by a few hot sectors. A quieter but no less noteworthy move into stocks is being made by mutual fund investors. The Investment Funds Institute of Canada reports net sales of $7-billion in equity funds last year, compared with $6-billion in net redemptions in 2016. More speculative specialty funds generated net sales of close to $2.6-billion, compared with $36.7-million in redemption in 2016. Mutual funds are typically sold by advisers, a point that raises questions about the advice industry's claim to deliver value by tempering client urges to get aggressive after stock markets rise and to lose heart after declines. This isn't any kind of stock market forecast, but it does seem late in the game for investors – DIY or advised – to recast themselves as aggressive stock jocks. Follow Rob Carrick on Twitter @rcarrick https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investoinside-the-market/know-your-limit-invest-within-it/article37751748/
Tracking and Rating Arizona State Legislative Campaign Filings for the 2020 Cycle (June 2019 Edition)
It's been a while since my last post highlighting the 2020 AZ legislative campaign, so I've decided to write an update on how things are looking in the Grand Canyon State. Unlike last post, there are 3 main lists: Incumbents (this includes State House running for State Senate), People I Have No Clue About, and Notable Challengers. When a specific filing has a discernable impact - i.e. "this is good for Democrats" - I'll say so. There's also an update to a January ranking that merits writing because I forgot which seat an incumbent held - instead of running for re-election in the House Kirsten Engel is running for Senate in D10, which could lead to her primarying our Senate Minority Leader. Don't worry that this batch of candidates is, on the whole, more bad for Dems than good. Some are incumbents, and them running for these seats was a foregone conclusion. Updates
Kirsten Engel, SD-10 (D) - in January I wrote "Rising star in the Democratic party, could potentially run for CD2 when it next opens up. Glad she's still in the fight". "In the fight" was probably an understatement, since Engel isn't the incumbent in SD-10 - instead, it's Senate Minority Leader David Bradley (D). Now, most Democratic leaders in Arizona are pretty competent - not Bradley. He only ran for Senate Minority Leader for the ability to fire some paid aides he didn't like who had been hired by a previous minority leader. Other Dem. senators think he's incompetent and lazy and often joke that House Minority Leader Charlene Fernandez is the de-facto Senate Minority Leader as well. Bradley has done practically nothing for the statewide cause and I hope he's retiring in 2020 (he's 67). If he runs for another term I pray Engel hands his ass to him on a platter. This is good for Democrats.
Kate Brophy McGee, SD-28 (R) - the Susan Collins of Arizona has filed to run for yet another fucking term in 2020. She held on last time by only 267 votes against 2016 Teacher of the Year Christine Porter Marsh. This seat would be a lot more winnable if it was open (I think Clinton won it by 3, Sinema by...9?) but if McGee is running for this she isn't primarying Stanton. This is bad for legislative Democrats, good for congressional Democrats.
Leo Biassuci, HD-5 (R) - nondescript GOP backbencher (and former Green Party candidate!). Very red district.
Richard Andrade, HD-29 (D) - progressive Dem. in a blue seat. Old backbencher, nice guy, glad he's running again.
Walt Blackman, HD-6 (R) - the AZ GOP's token black friend, a freshman incumbent in a very close House seat up north (where Dems lost by 577 votes last year). Blackman's a charismatic veteran and a minority and is probably the best candidate they can field in this seat - a mini John James. Him running for re-election, while expected, is bad for Democrats.
Isela Blanc, SD-26 (D) - not an incumbent in SD-26, but a House incumbent in the analogous district. She's primarying Sen. Juan Mendez for unknown reasons, having split from him and fellow district Democratic Rep. Athena Salman back before last year's election. Blanc and Mendez are both progressive as fuck, so I don't see the point of this primary.
Shawnna Bolick, HD-20 (R) - Bolick is the wife of AZ supreme Court Justice Clint Bolick. After carpetbagging across the Valley of the Sun, Shawnna won a seat on her 3rd try - but not by much. Given how tight HD-20 is her re-election campaign is at worst neutral for Dems, and may be slightly good for Democrats.
Sean Bowie, SD-18 (D) - Bowie is a Blue Dog-ish Senator in a suburban district, having flipped the seat in 2016 and increasing his margin in 2018. On a personal level he's kind of a dick (you didn't hear it from me), but as a candidate he can run a damn good race and has a surprisingly loyal base among Dems in the district. Him running again is good for Democrats.
Paul Boyer, SD-20 (R) - Paul Boyer is a freshman Senator in District 20 who for some reason is running for re-election (instead of opting for something less stressful, like the Phoenix City Council) despite being threatened with blacklisting by his GOP colleagues for having the gall to hold his budget vote hostage until a law defending sexual assault victims was passed. He's a kinda-moderate guy, teacher - decent fit for a suburban district that Dems won statewide last year. Him running for re-election is bad for Democrats.
Noel Campbell, HD-1 (R) - nondescript backbencher in deep-red seat.
Andrea Dalessandro, SD-2 (D) - nice Dem. backbencher in a safe D district.
Mitzi Epstein, HD-18 (D) - nice Dem. backbencher in the same district as Bowie. Speaks softly but runs a big campaign when you need her to. This is good for Democrats.
Karen Fann, SD-1 (R) - GOP Senate President who lives in a stupidly-red seat. Not much to analyze.
David Farnsworth, CorpComm (R) - Average GOP Senator in a deep red seat, trying to run statewide this time around for the utility board. I don't really know his utility positions and he's not much of a bombthrower so I can't give an impact of this filing at this point in time. I guess it makes the primary for the GOP slightly more contentious which might be slightly good for Democrats.
Charlene Fernandez, HD-4 (D) - if you read the Engel blurb above, Fernandez is the House Minority Leader that pulls double duty by covering for the incompetence of the Dem. Senate Minority Leader. Charlene's a goddamn tank and may run for Congress once Grijalva retires, or for the governorship in 2022. But she seems damn set to be Speaker of the House for a couple of years before that. The Democrats in AZ need her - so her running again is good for Democrats.
John Fillmore, HD-16 (R): GOP backbencher in a deep-red district.
Randall Friese, HD-9 (D): Randy Friese is the current Democratic Assistant House Minority Leader, the surgeon who saved Gabby Giffords's life, and amateur Jeremy Corbyn lookalike. He's a great legislator and campaigner and helped fundraise for competitive seats across the state. He was a presumptive candidate for the US Senate, but with Kelly running I'm glad he's sticking in the legislature. This is good for Democrats.
Rosanna Gabaldon, HD-2 (D) - nice Dem. backbencher in a safe D district.
Travis Grantham, HD-12 (R) - typical GOP douche dude in a dark-red seat.
Jennifer Jermaine, HD-18 (D) - the third Democrat in District 18 (along with Bowie and Epstein), Jermaine is a former Moms Demand Action and public school funding campaigner who ran a damn good race last year to win her seat. The fact that she's running again is good for Democrats.
Sine Kerr, SD-13 (R) - GOP backbencher in a dark-red seat. This is getting repetitive, I know.
Jay Lawrence, HD-23 (R) - Lawrence is a kinda-Trumpy Representative who holds court in his Scottsdale-centered district, an incredibly wealthy suburb of Phoenix. He's not as vocally and visibly horrible as Kern, but he's still quite the nut. Lawrence is 84 years old and is slowing down with every passing day. I don't know if he can put on a solid campaign, which is why this filing might be slightly good for Democrats.
Vince Leach, SD-11: Kinda-nutjobby Senator in a exurban district of Tucson. Probably won't be in play next year but if Leach and his seatmates keep running their mouths...I dunno. His bomb-throwing might be slightly good for Democrats.
David Livingston, SD-22: Deep red seat for a meh GOP backbencher.
Jennifer Longdon, HD-24: Longdon's an incredibly inspirational and powerful freshman legislator, who ousted an incumbent on her way to winning a deep blue downtown seat. She's a rising star in the party and her staying around for another two years is good for Democrats.
Otoniel Navarrete, SD-30 (D) - Navarrete is a strong progressive voice in the Senate, albeit also a Meza ally. I'm glad he's in the seat and I like his work, but christ, dude can choose better allies.
Jennifer Pawlik, HD-17 (D) - Pawlik is often Klobuchar-esque in her management of campaign staff and employees (I know from firsthand experience), but is a decent campaigner in a suburban seat - the only elected Democrat above the school district level in Arizona's 5th Congressional District. Her running for a second term is good for Democrats.
Warren Petersen, HD-12 (R) - Petersen is the Republican House Majority Leader and a former State Senator. It makes sense he's running again. Deep red district although tiny clumps of it are starting to swing blue.
Pamela Powers Hannley, HD-9 (D) – progressive seatmate of Dr. Friese. Nice lady, glad she’s still in the fight.
Bret Roberts, HD-11 (R) - not as bombthrowy as Leach or Finchem, but still hopefully too conservative for his purpling district. Might be slightly good for Democrats.
Amish Shah, HD-24 (D) - a physician by trade, Shah snuck into office last year in the bloody primary that also catapulted Longdon to her seat. He's surprisingly conservative for a deep blue seat (cosponsored a bill calling porn a public health crisis), although not Robert Meza levels. His political views aren't much of an impediment in the minority, but if Dems get the majority his presence in the caucus might be slightly bad for Democrats.
Jeff Weninger, HD-17 (R) - Weninger is a weird Bitcoin fan and quasi-libertarian who represents the same suburban seat as Pawlik. He's too much of a doofus to have any dirt on him, so if Dems field a candidate next fall he'll probably have a slight incumbency advantage. This is slightly bad for Democrats.
People I Have No Clue About
George Algozzini, HD-20 (I) - George is a very interesting character running for an important district next year. On his Twitter account, this "Christian veteran and Independent voter" has retweeted former Gov. Jan Brewer (R), Donald Trump, and oddly enough Pete Buttigieg - whom he is seemingly supporting in the presidential race. George leans conservative and might be an interesting spoiler in this race, but his issues and donation links are both broken on his website so I doubt he'll run a decent race. Might be slightly good for Democrats if he qualifies.
Seth Blattman, SD-23 (D) - Blattman's a small business owner with local connections who's running in SD-23, facing 2018 nominee Daria Lohman in the primary. Lohman ran a stupidly bad campaign so any warm body may be better than her, and Blattman's no warm body from the looks of his LinkedIn. This is probably good for Democrats.
Nick Fierro, HD-16, (I) - Fierro is a left-leaning independent in a dark red district who's trying to outperform the baseline by not running as a Dem. I mean, I'm glad they have someone there.
Edward Hampton, SD-6 (R) - some ranod, can't find anything about him online. If he makes the R primary at all contentious in this super-close race, it might be slightly good for Democrats.
Nadia Hanif, HD-4, (R) - Hanif is a doctor in Yuma running for a deep blue seat. She can knock herself out for all I care but I doubt anything will happen.
Suzanne Hug, HD-25 (D) - Hug's a random activist in HD25 who's better than the candidate last year, but that's a pretty low bar to clear. It's a ruby red district so there's no real impact here.
Justin Laos, HD-24 (R) - Justin's a software engineer with seemingly no prior political experience and with very little presence online. The district he's running in is quite blue so he's more or less an afterthought.
Kim Owens, CorpComm (R) – Experienced political operative with a legal background to boot. Could make the GOP primary pretty contentious, which might be slightly good for Democrats.
Felipe Reyes Perez, HD-11 (D) – random doctor in Tucson. Seems like a decent guy, might be able to put up a fight in the campaign. Might be good for Democrats.
Jon Saline, HD-6 (R) – Random rural attorney paranoid that we’re all gonna turn into Venezuela, per his Facebook’s “Why I’m Running”. This primary is looking like it’ll be a goddamn clusterfuck, which is good for Democrats.
Selina Bliss, HD-1 (R) – President of the Arizona Nurses’ Association. Hopefully a tick more moderate than the past occupant of that seat (David Stringer).
Stephanie Stahl Hamilton, HD-10 (D) - Small business owner, church camp leader, and liberal activist in Tucson. Very involved in the local political spheres. Decent replacement for Engel, who's moving on to the Senate.
Daniel Toporek, HD-20 (D) – Army Air National Guard warrant officer and Afghanistan vet. Little presence online but if he gets his campaign up to speed he could be a strong option for the seat, and his filing therefore might be good for Democrats.
Shea Stanfield, CorpComm (D) - Stanfield is a former teacher, counselor, and local environmental board member. Decent experience for the CorpComm position imo, and is hitting the ground running.
Jacqueline Parker, HD-16 (R) - former CorpComm staffer who likes to post incredibly racist "memes" about Obama on her personal FB page. Somehow might not be the most unqualified person running for this seat.
Ted Carpenter, HD-28 (R) - now that's a name Arizona hasn't heard in a while! Carpenter is a former State Representative, serving from 1998-2006 before losing in a State Senate primary in 2006. Carpenter hails from a by-gone era of slightly-less-combative GOP candidates, and is definitely a more moderate option compared to the nutjobs HD28 has elected in the past, like Trump inauguration donor Maria Syms. In the short term, this is bad for Democrats - but the recruitment of an old warhorse is a telling sign that the local party knows it's losing ground. They hear the drumbeat of progress in the district, and they're scared shitless.
Paul Newman and Bill Mundell, CorpComm (D) - Mundell and Newman are both former CorpComm members, trying to run to get back on the board. Paul Newman served on the board from 2009-2013, Mundell from 1999-2009 as a Republican, after serving in the Arizona House of Representatives, also as a Republican. Mundell previously ran in 2016 and 2018, losing twice. In 2018 his campaign went extremely in the primary, implying a fellow Democrat was a puppet of the utilities in this state, and had supporters get mildly-moderately stalkish trying to prove a non-existent connection. Mundell lost in the primary, and that Democrat (Sears) lost in the general. I'm no fan of the guy, explicitly because of stunts like this. This pairing is slightly good for Democrats - they bring a lot of star power, but also a lot of hairbrained insanity on the part of William Mundell.
Debbie Nez-Manuel, HD-26 (D) - A Native American activist living on the Salt River reservation, Nez-Manuel originally primaried Sen. Mendez in 2016. Narrowly losing, she's filed this year for the open House seat that Rep. Blanc is vacating. I haven't heard of any other candidates running for the seat besides her and Rep. Salman, so hopefully that primary isn't as contentious as the Senate mess. Debbie's a great person and I'm glad to have the opportunity to vote her in while still keeping Mendez in the Senate.
Wendy Rogers, SD-6 (R) - The worst carpetbagger ever is back at it again. Rogers had an illustrious career in the Air Force, followed by a slightly less-illustrious career of losing four elections in a row (2010 SD-17, 2012 CD9 GOP Primary, 2014 CD9 General, and then the 2018 CD1 General). She's a loose cannon with a small base of support that seemingly will never die. She's gonna add her own spice to a primary that already has Hampton, Rep. Bob Thorpe (he has yet to actually file so no blurb about him), and possibly incumbent Sen. Sylvia Allen. It will be a shitshow, and that is good for Democrats.
David Alger, SD-24 (R) - a perennial candidate for the seat who sometimes runs with his wife Vicki on a House/Senate slate, Alger's not much to worry about or write about.
Kenneth Bowers Jr., HD-28 (R) - Bowers is another perennial candidate who's been pinging around District 28 for quite a while, angry that McGee wasn't Trumpy enough. He's never won a race a probably never will, but this distraction for Carpenter is at least slightly good for Democrats.
Forest John Moriarty, HD-16 (R) - Close Townsend ally, private school and religious rights campaigner. Goddamn patriot. Probably will take this seat, because God hates us all. Like I said, if two Republicans had to win, I'd pick Parker over this fuck.
Felicia French, SD-6 (D) - Ran for HD-6 last year and lost by only 577 votes. French is a decent campaigner with a nice background, and if the SD-6 primary on the GOP side is the mess it looks like it's gonna be, she may have a shot at this seat. Her return to the fray is good for Democrats.
Coral Evans, HD-6 (D) - Mayor of Flagstaff, the largest city in HD-6. Her recruitment for this seat is a sign that the party's going all-or-nothing in the district. If she can't win this seat this year, I dunno who can. It's critical that we pick this seat up. Very good for Democrats.
Sharon Girard, HD-8 (D) - While she wasn't the worst campaigner out there (see Lohman, Daria), Girard made several rookie mistakes in 2018 and ran a poor campaign in a rural district that required 100% effort and focus. It's disappointing that she's running again. If the party doesn't find other people there who can win the primary this could be bad for Democrats.
Michael Hernandez, SD-16 (R) - Libertarian-ish dude in SD16 who ran for Senate last year. Honestly a pretty nice guy and a relatively moderate R, although not the best campaigner. At least he'll give Townsend somewhat of a fight in the primary.
Eric Sloan, CorpComm (R) - Trumpist candidate who ran for the same position last year. His campaign imploded after it came out he racially harassed coworkers at his past job, and he ended up getting 14.5% in a 5-way race. Probably will be toast next year as well, but if he adds to the shitshow of a primary that could happen on that front then this could be slightly good for Democrats.
And that's finally it! Took me most of my morning to type up. I'm gonna try to push out another update in a few months - although I won't wait until December because this was such a large backlog.
S&P Futures Slide, Europe Jumps As Traders Beg For End To Turbulent Week
There is a sense of almost detached resignation amid trading desks as we enter the last trading day of a chaotic, volatile week that has whipsawed and stopped out virtually everyone after the Nasdaq saw the biggest intraday reversal since Thursday and pattern and momentum trading has become impossible amid one headline tape-bomb after another. After yesterday furious tumble and sharp, last hour rebound, US equity futures are once again lower expecting fresh developments in the Huawei CFO arrest and trade war saga while today's payroll report may redirect the Fed's tightening focus in wage growth comes in hotter than the 3.1% expected; at the same time European stocks have rebounded from their worst day in more than two years while Asian shares posted modest gains as investors sought to end a bruising week on a more upbeat note. While stock trading was far calmer than Thursday, signs of stress remained just below the surface as the dollar jumped, Treasuries rose and oil whipsawed amid fears Iran could scuttle today's OPEC deal. The MSCI All-Country World Index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was up 0.3% on the day, on track to end the week down 2%. After Europe's Stoxx 600 Index sharp drop on Thursday, which tumbled the most since the U.K. voted to leave the EU in 2016, Friday saw Europe's broadest index jump 1.2% as every sector rallied following the cautious trade in the Asia-Pac session and the rebound seen on Wall Street where the Dow clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. European sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in the tech sector as IT names bounce back from yesterday’s Huawei-driven slump. Technology stocks lead gains on Stoxx 600 Index, with the SX8P Index up as much as 2.3%, outperforming the 1.1% gain in the wider index; Nokia topped the sector index with a 5.9% advance in Helsinki after Thursday’s public holiday, having missed out on initial gains from rival Huawei’s troubles that earlier boosted Ericsson. Inderes said the arrest of Huawei CFO over potential violations of American sanctions on Iran will benefit Nokia and Ericsson, who are the main rivals of Huawei and ZTE. Similarly, Jefferies wrote in a note on Chinese networks that China may have to offer significant concessions to buy Huawei an “out of jail” card and reach a trade deal, with China’s tech subsidies and “buy local” policies potentially under attack. "For example, why would Nokia and Ericsson have only 20% share in China’s 4G market," analysts wrote. Meanwhile, energy names were volatile as the complex awaits further hints from the key OPEC+ meeting today. In terms of individual movers, Fresenius SE (-15.0%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the company cut medium-term guidance, citing lower profit expectations at its clinics unit Helios and medical arm Fresenius Medical Care (-7.8%). The news sent Fresenius BBB- rated bonds tumbling, renewing fears of a deluge of "fallen angels." On the flip side, Bpost (+7.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) are hovering near the top of the pan-Europe index amid broker upgrades. Earlier in the session, Japanese equities outperformed as most Asian gauges nudged higher. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan nudged up 0.2%, though that followed a 1.8 percent drubbing on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.8 percent. Chinese shares, which were up earlier in the day, slipped into negative territory with the blue chips off 0.1 percent.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 also started firmer but were last down 0.4 percent. Markets face a test from U.S. payrolls data later in the session amid speculation that the U.S. economy is heading for a tough patch after years of solid growth. Will the last employment report released this year (the December report comes out in early January) help markets to continue to form a base? The consensus for nonfarm payrolls today is for a 198k print, following the stronger-thanexpected 250k reading last month. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom which should be enough to keep the annual reading at +3.1% yoy while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. DB's economists are more or less in line with the consensus with a 200k forecast and also expect earnings to climb +0.3% mom, however that would be consistent with a small tick up in the annual rate to +3.17% and the fastest pace since April 2009. They also expect the current pace of job growth to push the unemployment rate down to 3.6% which would be the lowest since December 1969. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confused traders when late on Thursday, he emphasized the strength of the labor market, throwing a wrench into trader expectations the Fed is poised to pause tightening - arguably the catalyst for Thursday's market-closing ramp following a WSJ article which reported Fed officials were considering whether to signal a new wait-and-see mentality after a likely rate increase at their meeting in December. While Friday's market has stabilized, for many the recent gyrations are just too much. For Dennis Debusschere, head of portfolio strategy at Evercore ISI, there’s still far too much risk to wade back into a market this riven by volatility. “Overall still untradeable in our opinion, until we get more clarity on trade and we think it will pay to wait this out,” he wrote in a note to clients Thursday. “That being said, our desk is open for business if you’re feeling up to trading this backdrop.” Meanwhile, the big question is what happens next year: “The big question mark still is what’s going to happen in 2019” with the Fed, Omar Aguilar, CIO of equities and multi-asset strategies at Charles Schwab, told Bloomberg TV. “The jobs report could easily be the catalyst that will tell us a little more about what the path may be.” Expecting that a big slowdown is coming, interest rate futures rallied hard in massive volumes with the market now pricing in less than half a hike next year, compared to just a month ago when they had been betting on more than two increases. Treasuries extended their blistering rally, driving 10-year yields down to a three-month trough at 2.8260 percent, before last trading at 2.8863 percent. Yields on two-year notes fell a huge 10 basis points at one stage on Thursday and were last at 2.75 percent. Investors also steamrolled the yield curve to its flattest in over a decade, a trend that has historically presaged economic slowdowns and even recessions. The seismic shock spread far and wide. Yields on 10-year paper sank to the lowest in six months in Germany, almost 12 months in Canada and 16 months in Australia. Italian debt climbed as European bonds largely drifted. The greenback advanced against most of its Group-of-10 peers ahead of U.S. jobs data that are expected to show hiring slowed last month. The pound fell as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May was said to be weighing a plan to postpone the vote on her Brexit deal. In commodity markets, gold firmed to near a five-month peak as the dollar eased and the threat of higher interest rates waned. Spot gold stood 0.1 percent higher at $1,239.49 per ounce. Oil was less favored, however, falling further as OPEC delayed a decision on output cuts while awaiting support from non-OPEC heavyweight Russia. Brent futures fell 0.5 percent to $59.77 a barrel, while U.S. crude also lost half a percent to $51.19. Cryptocurrencies continued their collapse with fresh losses after U.S. regulators dashed hopes that a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund would appear before the end of this year. Market Snapshot
S&P500 futures down 0.4% to 2,680.00
STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 347.69
MXAP up 0.2% to 151.21
MXAPJ up 0.2% to 485.67
Nikkei up 0.8% to 21,678.68
Topix up 0.6% to 1,620.45
Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 26,063.76
Shanghai Composite up 0.03% to 2,605.89
Sensex up 0.9% to 35,631.53
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 5,681.49
Kospi up 0.3% to 2,075.76
German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.244%
Euro down 0.05% to $1.1368
Italian 10Y yield rose 13.9 bps to 2.835%
Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.46%
Brent futures up 0.2% to $60.16/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,239.70
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.88
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
The arrest of Huawei Technologies Co. Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou in Canada over potential violations of American sanctions on Iran has triggered a debate in China over whether to carry on with trade talks with the U.S. or link the two issues and retaliate; Meng will have a bail hearing Friday to determine whether she is a flight risk and should remain in detention during proceedings on extradition to the U.S.
Oil extended losses near $51 a barrel after OPEC entered a second day of talks in an attempt to draw up a deal to cut output. Iran sees no possibility of agreeing to reduce its output, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said Friday
Theresa May met with her top ministers in London on Thursday to discuss options of delaying the Dec. 11 Parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal to avoid a landslide defeat that would risk a major U.K. political crisis, according to a person familiar with the matter
EU leaders are poised to turn their next summit into a Brexit crisis meeting, but so far, it doesn’t look like they’re willing to offer her anything that could help to break the deadlock in the U.K. Parliament
Angela Merkel’s long exit from politics begins Friday when her party gathers in Hamburg to decide whether to appoint her chosen successor as its new leader or break with the legacy of her 13 years in charge of Germany
Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria has complained that he is the victim of one ambush after another as his future is called into question amid tensions with populist leaders over a spending spree to fund election policies, according to newspaper Il Giornale
Asian stocks saw cautious gains with the region getting an early tailwind after the sharp rebound on Wall St, where most majors inished lower albeit off worse levels as tech recovered and the DJIA clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) were both higher at the open but gradually pared some of the gains as the risk tone began to turn cautious heading into today’s key-risk NFP jobs data. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp (U/C) were indecisive amid further PBoC inaction in which it remained net neutral for a 5th consecutive week and with the upcoming Chinese trade data over the weekend adding to tentativeness, while pharmaceuticals were the worst hit due to concerns of price declines from the government’s centralized procurement program. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat amid a similar picture in T-note futures and although early selling pressure was seen in Japanese bonds alongside the strong open in stocks, prices later recovered as the risk appetite somewhat dissipated. Top Asian News - China’s FX Reserves Rose Despite Intervention, Outflow Signs - Hong Kong May Slip Into Recession in 2019, Deutsche Bank Warns - SoftBank Seeks to Assuage Investors on Pre-IPO Mobile Outage - Southeast Asia Reserves Recover a Bit in November as Rout Eases European equities extended on gains from the cash open (Eurostoxx 50 +1.2%) following the cautious trade in the Asia-Pac session and the rebound seen on Wall St where the Dow clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. European sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in the tech sector as IT names bounce back from yesterday’s Huawei-driven slump. Meanwhile, energy names are volatile (currently marginally underperforming) as the complex awaits further hints from the key OPEC+ meeting today. In terms of individual movers, Fresenius SE (-15.0%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the company cut medium-term guidance, citing lower profit expectations at its clinics unit Helios and medical arm Fresenius Medical Care (-7.8%). On the flip side, Bpost (+7.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) are hovering near the top of the pan-Europe index amid broker upgrades. Top European News
LandSec, Undeterred by Brexit, Makes New Bet on London Offices
Danske Says It’s Looking Into Selling Its Swedish Pension Assets
Chinese Group Agrees to Buy Amer Sports in $5.2 Billion Deal
Bad Air Warnings in London And Paris Peak With Fish And Chips
DXY- Typically rangebound trade in the run up to US labour data, and with markets also monitoring OPEC+ headlines as a decision on whether to cut output and if so by how much remains highly uncertain. The index is hovering just under the 97.000 handle within a 96.767-96.931 band, and well within nearest technical support and resistance levels at 96.300 and 97.311 respectively.
GBP- A marginal G10 underperformer as Cable retreats back below 1.2750 from just above 1.2800 at one stage, but this could be more flow-related rather than anything fundamental as EuGbp rallied towards 0.8930 peaks from just under the big figure into the Frankfurt fixing before drifting back again. However, Halifax house prices were much weaker than expected and latest Brexit news is hardly Sterling supportive given more speculation about delaying the meaningful vote to try and avoid a resounding rejection, even though the Government appears to be resolute and standing firm on December 11.
NZD/AUD- The Kiwi is at the opposite end of a relatively narrow Usd/Major spectrum, and like the Pound also impacted by indirect factors to a degree, if not in the main. Indeed, Nzd/Usd remains capped ahead of 0.6900, but Aud/Nzd is pivoting 1.0500 as the Aussie unit continues to feel the adverse effects of recent bearish impulses, namely softer than forecast Q3 GDP and a more dovish RBA via Debelle. Hence, Aud/Usd is softer between 0.7210-40 parameters and bound to be wary of huge option expiries from 0.7250-60 in 6.6 bn that form a formidable barrier ahead of circa 1.2 bn up at 0.7300.
EUJPY- In the pre-NFP ‘hiatus’ and awaiting anything further on the Italian budget front, option expiries may also exert directional impetus on EuUsd and Usd/Jpy, as the former faces 2+ bn at the 1.1400 strike and latter is flanked by 1+ bn at 112.50 and 113.00.
CAD- The Loonie has pared a bit more lost ground from recent lows, albeit partly due to a broad Usd retracement, eyeing OPEC and also Canada’s jobs report given latest BoC guidance indicating even greater data dependency. Usd/Cad currently just shy of the 1.3400 mark vs 1.3440+ at one stage yesterday.
In commodities, WTI (+0.2%) and Brent (+0.9%) are choppy in what was a volatile session thus far as comments from energy ministers emerged ahead of the key OPEC+ meeting, after yesterday’s OPEC talks ended with no deal for the first time in almost five years. Brent rose after source reports noted that Moscow are ready to cut output by 200k BPD (below OPEC’s desire of 250k-300k but above Russia’s prior “maximum” of 150k) if OPEC are willing to curb production by over 1mln BPD. Prices then fell to session lows following a less constructive tone from Saudi Energy Minister who reiterated that he is not confident there will be a deal today, which came after delegates noted that OPEC talks are focused on a combined OPEC+ cut of 1mln BPD (650k from OPEC and 350k from Non-OPEC). Markets are awaiting the start of the OPEC+ meeting after delegates stated that talks are at deadlocked as Iran appears to be the main sticking point to an OPEC deal, though sources emerged stating that Iran, Venezuela and Libya are set to get exemptions from cuts, adding that OPEC and Russia are looking for a symbolic production commitment from Iran as fears arise that Iran may not be able to follow-through on curb pledges due to US sanctions. In terms of metals, gold hovers around session highs and is set for the best week since August with the USD trading in a tight range ahead of the key US jobs data later today, while London copper rose over a percent is underpinned by the positive risk tone. US Event Calendar
8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 198,000, prior 250,000
Unemployment Rate, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%; Underemployment Rate, prior 7.4%
Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.1%
8:30am: Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.5, prior 34.5
10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97, prior 97.5; Current Conditions, prior 112.3; Expectations, prior 88.1
3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $15.0b, prior $10.9b
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The age of innocence has truly gone in financial markets after a turbulent 24 hours but one that saw a spectacular rally after Europe closed last night and one that has steadily carried on in Asia overnight (more on this below). Before we get to that I’m on an intense client marketing roadshow at the moment on the 2019 Credit outlook and there are a litany of worries out there from investors. Maybe I’m trying to be too cute here but I think the problems we’re seeing in credit at the moment are more of a “ghost of Xmas future” rather than a sign of an imminent disaster scenario. However my overall confidence that credit will blow up around the end of this cycle has only intensified in the last couple of weeks. Liquidity is awful in credit and it’s been a broken two way market for several years (probably as long as I’ve worked in it - 24 years). However this has got worse this cycle as the size of the market has grown rapidly but dealer balance sheets have reduced. As such you can buy massive size at new issue but your ability to sell in secondary is constrained to a small percentage of this. This didn’t matter much when inflows dominated - as they mostly did in this cycle pre-2018 - but in a year of outflows across the board the lack of a proper two way market is increasingly being felt. As discussed I don’t think this is the start of the crisis yet but be warned that when this economic cycle does roll over or even starts to operate at stall speed the credit market will be very messy and will influence other markets again. On the positive side and despite a very steep mid-session selloff, US markets ultimately closed well off the lows. The DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ finished -0.32%, -0.15% and +0.42% respectively, though they traded as low as -3.14%, -2.91%, and -2.43% respectively, around noon in New York. At its lows, the S&P 500 was on course for its worst two-session stretch since February, and before that you’d have to go back to August 2015 or 2011 to find the last episode with as steep a two-day drop. The DOW and S&P 500 dipped into negative territory for the year again, but clawed back and are now +0.92% and +0.84% YTD (+3.16% and +2.69% on a total return basis). The NASDAQ has clung to its outperformance, as it is now up +4.13% this year, or +5.20% on a total return basis, though of course the difference is narrower in the low-dividend paying, high-growth tech index. Unsurprisingly, the moves yesterday coincided with higher volatility with the VIX climbing as much as +5.2pts to 25.94 and pretty much back to the October highs, though it too rallied alongside the equity market to end close to flat at 21.15. Meanwhile, the price action was even uglier in Europe as the US lows were around the close. The STOXX 600 plunged -3.09% and is down -4.22% in two days – the most in two days since June 2016. Nowhere was safe. The DAX (-3.48%), CAC (-3.32%), FTSE MIB (-3.54%) and IBEX (-2.75%) all saw huge moves lower. The DAX has now joined the Italy’s FSTEMIB in bear market territory, as it is now -20.49% off its highs earlier this year. The FTSEMIB is down -24.04% from its highs. European Banks – which were already down nearly -27% YTD going into yesterday – tumbled -4.29% for the biggest daily fall since May and the third biggest since immediately after Brexit. The index is now at the lowest since October 2016 and within 17% of the June 2016 lows all of a sudden. US Banks fell -1.87%, though they had dipped -4.3% at their troughs to touch the lowest level since September 2017. As for credit, HY cash spreads in Europe and the US were +8.5bps and +14.8bps wider respectively. For context, US spreads are now at the widest since December 2016 and this is the best performing broad credit market over the last couple of years. In bond markets, 10y Treasuries rallied-2.4bps but was as much as 9bps lower intra-day. Thanks to an outperformance at the front end (two-year fell -3.7bps), the 2s10s curve actually ended a shade steeper at 13.0bps (+1.3bps on the day). However that move for the 10y now puts it at the lowest since September at 2.89%, and only +48.6bps above where we started the year. The spread on the Dec 19 to Dec 18 eurodollar contract – indicative for what is priced into Fed hikes for next year - is down to just 16bps. It was at 60bps in October. This certainly appears to be too low, though a Wall Street Journal article yesterday seemed to signal a willingness by the Fed to moderate its pace of rate hikes. Finally, in Europe, Bunds closed -4.1bps lower at 0.236%. Quite amazing moves with Bunds continuing to defy all fundamental logic and trading instead as a risk-off lightning rod. There was some talk that the sharp moves lower at the open yesterday were exaggerated by the unexpected midweek close for markets in the US which resulted in futures systems failing to be programmed to adjust and orders backing up. However the combination of a -2.25% drop for WTI (-5.2% at the lows) post the OPEC meeting (more below) and the Huawei story that we mentioned yesterday certainly aided to the initial malaise. There was some talk that both the Chinese and US authorities would have been aware of the arrest before last weekend’s talks and as such this story shouldn’t be necessarily a threat to the truce, though Reuters reported last night that President Trump did not know about the planned arrest. The implications of this are unclear, since it could mean that Trump has less direct control over the arresting agency, but it could also indicate that the move is not part of trade policy. Either way, how this development will be key for the market moving forward, especially any response from Chinese officials. This morning in Asia markets are largely trading higher with the Nikkei (+0.60%), Hang Seng (+0.21%), Shanghai Comp (+0.08%) and Kospi (+0.51%) all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.11%) are pointing towards a flattish start. Meantime crude oil (WTI -0.39% and Brent -0.60%) prices are continuing to trade lower this morning. It wouldn’t be an EMR worth it’s place in the daily schedule without an Italy and Brexit update. As we go to print Italian daily La Stampa has reported that the Italian Premier Conte and Deputy Premier Di Maio are in favour of the resignation of Finance Minister Tria while Deputy Premier Salvini is against his resignation. So signs of tension. In the U.K. a few press articles (like Bloomberg) are suggesting that PM May is considering postponing Tuesday’s big vote. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of substance to the story at the moment but it mentions going back to the EU for concessions on the Irish backstop as one possibility. How the EU will feel would be the obvious question. As mentioned earlier, oil had a difficult session yesterday, falling back to its recent lows with WTI touching a $50 handle and Brent trading back below $60 per barrel. The first day of the OPEC summit did not appear promising for the odds of a new production deal, as the ministers apparently discussed a 1 million barrel per day cut, below the 1.5 million needed to balance the market.The Libyan oil minister abruptly left before the day’s meetings concluded, and the organization canceled their scheduled press conference. The Russian delegation will join the OPEC contingent today in an effort to finalize a deal, but Saudi Energy Minister al-Falih said that “Russia is not ready for a substantial cut.” Watch this space today. Overnight, the Fed Chair Powell delivered an upbeat message on the US economy and the Job market ahead of today’s payrolls release. He said, “our economy is currently performing very well overall, with strong job creation and gradually rising wages,’’ while adding, “in fact, by many national-level measures, our labour market is very strong.’’ Elsewhere, the Fed’s John Williams said yesterday that the biggest challenge which the policy makers are facing is achieving a soft landing. He said, “we have a pretty strong economy -- unemployment pretty low, inflation near our goal -- it’s just managing a soft landing, keeping this expansion going for the next few years.” So will the last employment report released this year (the December report comes out in early January) help markets to continue to form a base? The consensus for nonfarm payrolls today is for a 198k print, following the stronger-thanexpected 250k reading last month. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom which should be enough to keep the annual reading at +3.1% yoy while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. Our US economists are more or less in line with the consensus with a 200k forecast and also expect earnings to climb +0.3% mom, however that would be consistent with a small tick up in the annual rate to +3.17% and the fastest pace since April 2009. They also expect the current pace of job growth to push the unemployment rate down to 3.6% which would be the lowest since December 1969. Going into that, yesterday’s ADP employment change report for November was a tad disappointing at 179k (vs. 195k expected) while more interestingly the recent tick up in initial jobless claims held with the print coming in at 231k. The four-week moving average is now 228k and the highest since April having gotten as low as 206k in September. So the climb, while not yet at concerning levels, is certainly notable and worth watching now on a week to week basis. As for the other interesting data points yesterday, the October trade deficit was confirmed as reaching a new cyclical wide. The ISM non-manufacturing print for November was a relative positive after coming in at 60.7, up 0.4pts from October and ahead of expectations for a decline to 59.0. Worth noting is that the three-month moving average of non-manufacturing ISM is now the highest on record which is a fairly reliable lead indicator for private nonfarm payrolls. US durable goods orders for October were revised slightly higher to -4.3% mom from -4.4%, though the core measures stayed at 0.0% mom. Factory orders declined -2.1% mom, though both were nevertheless higher year-on-year. As for the day ahead, the aforementioned November employment in the US will no doubt be front and centre, however, prior to that, we’ve October industrial production prints in Germany and France, along with Q3 labour costs in the former, and the final Q3 GDP revisions for the Euro Area (no change from +0.2% qoq second reading expected). We’ll also get the monthly inflation reporting for November in the UK. Also due out in the US is October wholesale inventories and trade sales, the preliminary December University of Michigan survey and October consumer credit. November foreign reserves data in China is also expected out at some point. Away from that the OPEC/OPEC+ meeting moves into the final day while the ECB’s Coeure and Fed’s Brainard are scheduled to speak. Today is also the day that Germany’s ruling CDU party elects a new chair to succeed Merkel. Our FX strategists noted yesterday that according to polls, the result should be a close call between general secretary Annegret Kramp-Karranbauer (AKK) and Friedrich Merz. Broadly speaking, AKK stands for a continuation of the Merkel-era strategy of positioning the CDU at the centre of the political spectrum, whereas Merz stands for a sharpening of the party's traditional profile as a centre-right party. Last night our German economics team put out a piece explaining the event and suggesting that Merz would be good for the DAX and AKK good for the Euro.
Ethereum is almost certainly the number 2 coin in comedy gold. It will likely surpass Bitcoin in comedy gold long before it passes it in market cap. Thanks in large part to a spam-based marketing campaign on Reddit, it also has a dedicated base of critics. After its IPO, it was known as “Inthereum” for a while, infinitely powerful of course, as vaporware can do anything. It had a major version release, then another. Finally, a major smart contract, in terms of valuation, came along: The DAO. Not to be confused with other DAOs, before and after. The DAO was the biggest. It was going to be the best; it already was the best! Euphoria was off the charts. Until just a few months in, a bug was found. And the killer app became the flash point. What could they do? Well, hard fork and give the money back, of course! And so they did. “Code is Law”; but this is actually good for Ethereum because “[a]lthough some do question the analogy ‘code is law’. I do not. We just found out that we have a supreme court, the community!”  After the D'OH, Ethereum struggles to top its ATH comedy gold, but there is still a bright future for popcorn and comedy gold from Ethereum.
5 Largest Veins of Comedy Gold
Here are the largest comedy gold veins in Ethereum in potential reserves in our estimation in approximately descending order:
Cultlike euphoria - Now, this can certainly be said to be common to almost all cryptocurrencies. But Ethereum seems special here, even more than Bitcoin's community. There is a real belief here that this coin is going to change the world. This helps play into a "this is very good for Ethereum" mindset, wherein even the D'OH fork was a great success!
Vitalik Buterin - The best name in cryptocurrency! Young genius central to Ethereum and almost universally seen as the most important leader in the project. In our view, his endorsement and leadership during the D'OH fork led to that route being taken. That is, we believe if he had opposed it from the start, he may have been able to prevent it or at least have led to what is now called ETC being the dominant of the two.
And so in our view, Mr. Buterin runs a billion dollar cryptocurrency right now. He and his team seem to have done reasonably well so far; it seems likely they'll continue to thrive. To the best of my knowledge, confirmed on /ethereum, there hasn't been a drug market implemented in Ethereum or trading with ETH so far. But while it seems like a terrible idea, because of the lack of privacy and proven mutability of contracts, it seems like eventually there's going to be a major drug market accepting ETH just because it has such a high value. And, they point out, monero and zcoin’s core privacy feature will apparently be available on ETH after this next fork, so look forward to anonymous ETH fueling drug markets! And then the interesting question will be raised of how Chief Justice Buterin will rule on the case, whether it is worthy of an intervention or not. If not a drug market, then another buggy and hacked contract. Or a hacked exchange, and the question of whether to make it or its users whole, or "let the hacker win".
DAOs - From the beginning, it was proposed that Ethereum itself and its reserve fund would be turned into a DAO. How exactly this was going to happen would be figured out later of course. There was an initial estimate of 2016 for the transition.
Of course, in 2016, The DAO and the D'OH happened. I'm not aware of a current further push to put all of ETH's future funding into a DAO. But I'm sure the topic will resurface. And it will be hilarious on so many levels. The DAO actually collapsed too soon for peak comedy gold extraction. It had been predicted that there would be no consensus on any proposals and that nothing would be funded, and that there would be gold from that. But it was just a few months in when the bug was found. And while the D'OH fork was certainly a rich vein of comedy gold, it wasn't as rich as what the DAO could have been if it had floundered around for a year or so before the hack. Surprisingly, there's actually a running, apparently working DAO on ETH that was started even before The DAO: digixDAO. If it keeps on running, it will continue to be hilarious as other DAOs fail to learn from it. If it fails, there's all the more hilarity for Ethereum, making it the platform where anything complicated enough to look like an original use case will break. The very existence of digix is proof-of-comedy-gold.
Immutability - The whole central notion of immutability is going to be a recurring question for Ethereum after the D'OH. While there was a lot of sentiment of "just this once and never again" at the time, there will someday be another major issue, and the precedent will mean that at least a major debate among the community will be had. Ethereum is "mostly immutable". Bitcoin is far better protected here, because while it's true they've hard forked to fix a bug before, that was years ago and the community is far more fractured now. Ethereum has a demonstrated capacity to do both routine and controversial hard forks. This strength is also a challenge, as it will invite constant legal and ethical questions about when it's appropriate to modify the chain itself with a fork: that is, rolling back some or all transactions after major bugs, thefts, frauds, and so forth.
Concentration of funds - This one I'm just guessing at. Although rich lists do exist, obviously one entity like an exchange could pool funds in an address without one person owning that much, or one person could splits their coins among many accounts. But it gives a rough guide. In Bitcoin, the top 113 addresses, having more than 10,000 BTC, in total are 17.46% of the current supply [ 2 ]. And in Ethereum, it's true that the top two accounts are marked as exchange accounts [ 3 ]. Still, having lots of funds concentrated in a single exchange wallet seems to still have some potential for comedy gold. In Ethereum, the top 50 addresses have more than double the proportion of the top 113 in Bitcoin, a bit over 40% of the current supply. My guess would be there are still a lot of people who invested heavily in the initial ICO who have held onto a significant portion of their initial ETH. While some of these top addresses are exchanges, I think there are probably many individuals represented in here as well, and every one of them is a multimillionaire from this account alone.
Of course, so far, because ETH is still smaller than BTC in overall market cap, these top addresses aren't as huge as the top addresses in Bitcoin in current market value. But if ETH were to overtake BTC's current position with a relatively unchanged distribution, there would be some real comedy gold coming off this factor. Cribs could have a spin-off Ethereum series. This concentration was a part of making The D'OH what it was in my view as well: in Bitcoin, there would never have been so much of the coin tied up in one particular venture, at least not now. But in Ethereum, this concentration and groupthink can combine to hilarious effect.
A Brief History of Comedy Gold in Ethereum:
“Laws, like sausages, cease to inspire respect in proportion as we know how they are made” - John Godfrey Saxe In the beginning, there was an offering. The greatest coin the world had ever seen; step right up and buy it! There was even code; this is no vaporware! Sure, there was more work to be done, but the ICO would fund that work, the founders would get a little, and create a reserve for the future and the rest would be mineable. There was also some of the most vociferous objections on BCT, declaring that the stake allocated to the founders was too large, pointing to other coins which had done smaller or done without. Arguing against the reserve; arguing against having a presale at all. Some people, of course, completely failing to read the documentation accurately to see what was even being proposed. And an almost complete radio silence from this large team working around the clock on Ethereum. It took some months from when the initial ANN was made until the sale actually started, but by the time they had their sale, they had perhaps the best documentation at launch to-date. Of course, there were some areas which seemed to lack some detail, like the budgeting, but never mind that, it was finally launching! Launching the sale, at least. In July and August of 2014, Ether was first sold. It was described as “fuel” for the virtual machine they were going to build [ 4 ]. And then, a year later, Ethereum was released live. By July 2016, it had already had its first major crisis after The DAO was hacked and the D’OH fork introduced in response. But the fact that Ethereum was ever released, and that it was released so quickly, is truly incredible. There was more than one person who thought that the stated goals of Ethereum were not possible. And, of course, many initial goals and deadlines didn’t happen. But unlike the railbirds on BCT were convinced, the team did not fail nor did it run off with the money. They were given a blank check, and they actually delivered a working product which has been successful so far financially. Of course, having its flagship smart contract go belly-up quite so quickly after having finally gotten a “killer app” seems rather unfortunate. The oracle problem (the question of how to reliably relate smart contracts to the outside world) seems unresolved, but partial solutions are inevitable and can only serve to make increasingly complex and thus popcorn-loaded contracts possible. Right now, all seems relatively quiet. But rest assured, there remains plenty of euphoria and gas to drive many more cycles of comedy gold production. Ether huffers need something to throw their ETH at. The more complicated; the better! Given some of the creations that have been made in NXT, for instance, a few more years of creativity on ETH should yield some very complicated and pop-corn rich smart contracts.
I was relaxing in my office, waiting for business. It was a dingy little one-room affair, but it would serve for now. Particularly with no clients. I had poured myself a double shot, and was about to enjoy it, when suddenly the door opened. A man walked in, familiar somehow although I couldn't place him. I reached out my hand instinctively, and instead of shaking it, he handed me a dollar. "Hello?" He pointed at the sign in the window, advertising a promotional one dollar gold survey for the first client. Always astute, I quickly surmised he wished to hire me. "Of course, sir! What coin would you like?" "Ethereum." "Certainly! And may I have your name for the log?" "Tyler Durdan." And with that, my newest client left. I downed my double and poured a generous triple to follow it. This was going to be a long day. Ethereum was the ultimate prize in my line of work. The coin which proved the adage that truth is stranger than fiction; which had proved itself a lucrative source of comedy gold. And who am I? Guy Noir, private comedy gold surveyor. I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Premined scamcoins crashing on noname exchanges. I watched popcorn glitter in the dark on forgotten the BCT threads. Popcorn junkies strung out on a high, and I've delivered them more comedy gold, popcorn, salt and butter. There is never enough. A dark night in a world that never sleeps and knows how to keep its secrets...But on the 12th Floor of the Acme Building, one man is still trying to find the answers to life's persistent questions: Guy Noir, private comedy gold surveyor. Thank you, Narrator. Now, as I was saying, Ethereum is overloaded with gold. But the core is pretty straightforward: Ethereum promised "smart contracts". Immutable. Turing-complete. This was what Bitcoin lacked. The bee's knees. Crypto 2.0. What could go wrong? We'll skip over the "Inthereum" period. Perhaps the vaporware criticism was never fair: from their version, they had Proof-of-Concept code; they went through some iterations and eventually got to release. Let's note clearly that there was plenty of time to determine some sort of official policy for what to do about a buggy or improperly written contract losing money. In Bitcoin, every hack has been a SFYL event, although it’s true that a bug in the coin itself was hard forked away before. Mt. Gox tried to blame malleability, but there was never a fork to try to recover funds. In Ethereum, immutability was often talked about. So far as I saw in skimming, “what if” scenarios to undo bugs wasn’t brought up front-and-center. Nor was immutability being debated that I saw. So Ethereum releases. A major contract is launched, The DAO, which gets an astonishing portion of ETH invested. The world's largest crowd sale as they ultimately called it. All the major players in ETH buy into it, including Vitalik Buterin, the creator of Ethereum and the best name in cryptocurrency. Just as they're starting to get into the comedy gold that The DAO doesn't really have a purpose, a bug is discovered. And just as its leader is assuring everyone that no funds are at risk, the funds start being drained out of the contract by an unknown party. And suddenly immutable means "immutable unless we screw up on the biggest contract which everyone important has invested in heavily". Ethereum ultimately hard-forks to return investor funds and basically unwind The DAO. After claiming that the bug was in the contract, the coin itself is hard forked to fix the issue. And the first Ethereum clone results, one which simply does not follow the new hard fork. So the natural question is: when can a contract be changed? In the first page of the Ethereum launch, this question was implied by asking about what would happen if there were an assassination market hosted by a smart contract on Ethereum. Of course, in reality, Ethereum is not really functional enough at present to enforce such a contract, but the question remains in case Ethereum were to actually attain a functioning smart contract platform. Attempted reference to Tears in rain monologue, credit to Rutger Hauer Guy Noir and narrator text lovingly stolen from Prairie Home Companion's Guy Noir, by Garrison B. Keillor.
Filed for psych eval Twenty pages into the BCT ANN, I believe I have contracted cancer, again. I’m reminded of why I don’t generally go on BCT. As bad as altcoin forums tend to be for their circlejerking, it’s almost better than the, well, there’s really no way to put it other than FUD that inevitably appears in response to anything. Of course, it’s not paid shilling so much as it is willful and vocal ignorance. For all the critiques in that thread, most of them are utter nonsense and simply are misreading the initial information. On the other hand, it’s January 27th in the thread by now, with February 1st and the pre-sale start, and they don’t have their “prospectus” up yet. I also haven’t seen the change in mining rate yet. Side note: eMunie; wtf? I guess I missed something? Either it’s gone through a namechange or it’s dead, because a quick coinmarketcap search didn’t find anything. A comedy gold mining project for another day. Great; spoiler alert: fundraiser delayed apparently, so even more cancer to read through in that thread on the way to getting to a prospectus! The first 44 pages of the thread was summarized thus: “I want to believe. Why are you not speaking to us? Throw me a bone. Just tell me what I want to hear, and I'll gladly throw my money in.” [ 5 ] Would that I had only had to read that quote rather than all 44 pages, and facing many more. Pages and comments dragged on as I waded through the low-grade popcorn. When would this prospectus be released, so my torment would end? Oh god: a side-thread shows that by the time they get to April, there’s still no prospectus or presale date or estimate of when there may be a date [ 6 ]. It’s time to give up on reading through the cancerous mainthread on BCT and start jumping ahead pages to find the pre-sale and prospectus. Okay, finally, in July, they release documents and start the sale [ 7 ]. Good enough. I have mountains of links on my desk. Comedy gold is overflowing, but this is a survey expedition, not a mining operation. But by the time it’s surveyed, there’s always so much gold lined up to mine it gets hard to leave it behind and leave with the samples. It’s time to hammer out some copy and close this file. Folks, we hope you’ve enjoyed this descent into madness and comedy gold brought to you by the Comedy Gold Survey Company and our patron Tyler Durden. Do you need more comedy gold in your life? Of course you do! So please donate today; every $1 helps! I’ve added a new special: $5 lets you choose the next coin to be surveyed! Thanks again to Tyler Durden, and I will now be re-watching Fight Club and questioning my sanity. Cheers y’all! Resources:
[ 6 ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=448923.msg6438910#msg6438910 - April 28th, 2014; Ursium says “We won't issue further comments regarding the Ether Sale, until we have completely finalized the framework for it. In the meantime enjoy the free technology, people are already building apps on it, which is exciting Smiley” ; this official Q&A thread then abandoned; these guys clearly hates BCT as much as I do
[ ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=412878.msg4497464#msg4497464 charleshoskinson, January 14th, 2014; “Current plans are for a 60 day fundraiser, starting from Miami on; however, we are still exploring this and thus will set something in stone closer to the conference.” - fundraiser launches in less than a month but date not even set yet; also “No, the rate of inflation is always decreasing and comparable with bitcoin.” and “In terms of ROI, this should be reflected with a positive ROI.” ; also “As for P2P exchange, we have a close relationship with Open Transactions and combined with a namecoin style contract provided in the whitepaper and bitmessage makes a significantly more efficient distributive exchange than is possible with BitShares. Trust is not required as auditing can be done on Ethereum blockchain and we wouldn't suffer any bloat. “
[ ] https://github.com/ethereum/wiki/wiki/White-Paper - Accessed Feb 12, 2017; shows a different version of the issuance model, including the variable presale price modification and reduced future mining. But constant mining reward is still shown and fixed.
[ ] https://forum.ethereum.org/discussion/2007/whitepaper-pdf - Thread from April 2015 where Stephen Tual says changes in whitepaper were “as to how significant these were, probably not much”; “We had a hosted copy of the WP on our .org website, but that is now pointing to the github (as the pdf, by definition, was static).”
[ ] https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,1854.0.html Thread which goes into Bytemaster response to initial Ethereum proposal; points out that running something complicated like Bitshares on Ethereum would be cost prohibitive. Also predicts Ethereum becomes PoS.
[ ] https://github.com/slockit/DAO “Our Standard DAO Framework allows people to create Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) governed by the code in this repository written immutably to the blockchain.”
[ ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428589.msg4690140#msg4690140 - “I think this whole project will get forced underground onto the Tor network in short order because the illegal stuff will be in the blockchain instead of externalized. It will have to directly compete with bitcoin with both hands tied behind its back because it will be hard for people to even find a safe copy of the program to download. Am I to understand that you will not have a legal opinion supporting what you are doing?” - Seth Otterstad
[ ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428589.msg4718951#msg4718951 “We will switch our PoW from Dagger to a hybrid PoW/PoS system to be developed via a bountied competition conducted by our university partners and open to the general community for participation. The terms will be announced in late february including judges, specifications and the university partners.” - jubalix quoting some Ethereum promotional document
[ ] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428589.msg4740396#msg4740396 “Creating the platform with new features is one thing. Competing in the real world of hype, adoption, and social marketing with Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Dogecoin is a completely different beast. Especially, when every coin is based on ever changing software. The software is secondary to the marketing and socialization at this stage in the ballgame.” - DieJohnny
January 10, 2016 January 24, 2016 The Busted Flush bitcoin, equities, europe, gold, interest rates, predictions, property, terrorism, uk, wages Leave a comment Towards the end of December 2015 I made quite a few predictions on Twitter about what people can expect in 2016 and where things are going. European Parliament Holds Hearing on Digital Currency Regulation – CoinDesk, 25 January 2016. Posted on January 26, 2016 by Gretchen Weber. Primavera De Filippi, a research fellow at Berkman Center for Internet & Society at Harvard University, said that bitcoin networks can be constructed to be “agnostic of any jurisdiction” and that people can operate the network without disclosing ... 9 posts published by Edwin on January 30, 2016. As part of an accounting class I'm teaching to college undergrads, we are looking at change in organisations, and I've decided to look at Bitcoin as a topic to teach them about, but I only have a limited knowledge about it. Flint, Michigan, made headlines, starting in 2015, when 5 percent of the city’s young children tested high for the toxic metal lead in their blood.As the story unfolded, it became clear that the children of Flint were victims of a massive failure of government — really a century-long failure to control the lead industry and the secondary industries that put lead into products for public ... European Parliament Holds Hearing on Digital Currency Regulation – CoinDesk, 25 January 2016. Posted on January 26, 2016 by Gretchen Weber. Primavera De Filippi, a research fellow at Berkman Center for Internet & Society at Harvard University, said that bitcoin networks can be constructed to be “agnostic of any jurisdiction” and that people can operate the network without disclosing ...
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